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Registros recuperados: 38
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A Spatial Equilibrium Model of the Impact of Bio-Fuels Energy Policy on Grain Transportation Flows AgEcon
Ahmedov, Zafarbek; Power, Gabriel J.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Fuller, Stephen W.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Vadali, Sharada.
Traffic flows in the U.S. have been affected by the substantial increase and, as of January 2009, decrease in biofuel production and use. This paper considers a framework to study the effect on grain transportation flows of the 2005 Energy Act and subsequent legislation, which mandated higher production levels of biofuels, e.g. ethanol and biodiesels. Future research will incorporate changes due to the recent economic slowdown.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Ethanol; Biodiesel; Spatial equilibrium; Quadratic programming; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49837
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Analysis of Production Efficiency of Mexican Coffee-Producing Districts AgEcon
Cardenas, Gabriela; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Houston, Jack E..
Despite the decline of coffee prices during the 1990s, coffee production remains a main economic activity for producers in Southeastern Mexico. This paper analyzes the coffee production system for 24 municipios, or districts, in Veracruz, Mexico during a five-year cropping period (1997-–2002). A stochastic frontier approach is used in order to estimate an input distance function and evaluate production efficiency during the period. Factors such as coffee quality and access to markets are tested in terms of their effect on efficiency. The results show the production process in these municipios, as measured by technical efficiency, seems to be stable over time despite of price fluctuations in the global market. Production of staple crops (corn) along with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19470
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Application of Copulas to Analysis of Index Insurance Contracts (PowerPoint Presentation) AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9379
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Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V..
This paper presents a copula-based methodology for modeling joint yield distributions. Copulas have been used extensively in financial literature, but have not been widely used in agricultural economics and particularly risk management. The copula approach provides a powerful and flexible method to model multivariate distributions and thus go beyond joint normality, regressibility, and mean-variance criterion. Accurate estimation of joint distributions may help to improve the results in the area of risk management and insurance obtained under more limiting assumptions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6264
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Application of Weather Derivatives in Multi-Period Risk Management AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Sanchez, Leonardo.
This work is a first attempt to analyze the effect of weather derivative availability on the risk management strategies in a multi-period setting, when crop activities take place twice a year. Rice production in Ecuador is used as a case study. Numerical solutions show farmers improve their well-being by reducing their risk exposure.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Risk Management; Multi-Period.; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103740
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Applications of copulas to Analysis of Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments AgEcon
Filonov, Vitaly; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103972
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Can the U.S. Ethanol Industry Compete in the Alternative Fuels' Market? AgEcon
Zhang, Zibin; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54¢/gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl-tertiary-butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34867
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Designing Catastrophe Bonds to Securitize Systemic Risks in Agriculture: The Case of Georgia Cotton AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Epperson, James E.; Barnett, Barry J..
This article makes an initial attempt to design catastrophe (CAT) bond products for agriculture and examines the potential of these instruments as mechanisms for transferring agricultural risks from insurance companies to investors/speculators in the global capital market. The case of Georgia cotton is considered as a specific example. The CAT bond contracts are based on percentage deviations of realized state average yields relative to the long-run average. The contracts are priced using historical state-level cotton yield data. The principal finding of the study is that the proposed CAT bonds demonstrate potential as risk transfer mechanisms for crop insurance companies.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: CAT bonds; Catastrophe bond pricing; Catastrophe insurance; Disaster risk; Reinsurance; Risk securitization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8610
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Designing Rainfall Insurance Contracts for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall index insurance; ENSO; Copulas; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56511
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Do Elevators Need a Bigger Umbrella? The Economic Value to Agribusiness Firms of Improved Multi-Commodity Risk Management AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Power, Gabriel J..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agribusiness.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62006
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Economic Analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Miranda, Mario J.; Dismukes, Robert; Glauber, Joseph W..
The paper presents an economic analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA), the contract that governs the relationship between the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the private insurance companies that deliver crop insurance products to farmers. The paper outlines provisions of the SRA and describes the modeling methodology behind the SRA simulator, a computer program developed to assist crop insurers and policymakers in assessing the economic impact of the Agreement. The simulator is then used to analyze how the SRA affects returns from underwriting crop insurance at various levels of aggregation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20345
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Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Barnett, Barry J..
This study analyzes efficiency of weather derivatives as primary insurance instruments for six crop reporting districts that are among the largest producers of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the United States. Specific weather derivatives are constructed for each crop/district combination based on analysis of several econometric models. The performance of the designed weather derivatives is then analyzed both in- and out-of-sample. The primary findings suggest that the optimal structure of weather derivatives varies widely across crops and regions, as does the risk-reducing performance of the optimally designed weather derivatives. Further, optimal weather derivatives required rather complicated combinations of weather variables to achieve reasonable fits...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Crop insurance; Index insurance; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30916
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Efficient Estimation of Copula Mixture Model: An Application to the Rating of Crop Revenue Insurance AgEcon
Ghosh, Somali; Woodard, Joshua D.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The association between prices and yields are of paramount importance to the crop insurance programs. Proper estimation of the association is highly desirable. Copulas are one such method to measure the dependence structure. Five single parametric copulas, a non- parametric copula and their fifteen different combinations taking a mixture of two different copulas at a time have been used in the crop insurance rating analysis. Using data of corn from 1973-2009 for 602 counties in the Mid-West area two different efficient methods have been proposed to generate the optimal mixtures using the cross validation approach. A resampling technique is used to check for the significance of the expected indemnities.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Copulas; Crop Insurance; Cross-Validation; Empirical distribution; GRIP; Indemnities; Out-Of-Sample Log-Likelihood; Agricultural Finance; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103738
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Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach AgEcon
Larsen, Ryan A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Leatham, David J..
As agriculture becomes more industrialized, the role of risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) will become more utilized. In this case it was applied to geographical diversification and also modifying the traditional VaR estimation by incorporating a copula dependence parameter into the VaR estimation. In addition, an alternative risk measure was also calculated, CVaR. The CVaR, unlike VaR, is a coherent risk measure. Thus it does not suffer from many of the shortcomings of the VaR. The land portfolio consisted of Dryland wheat production acres in Texas, Colorado, and Montana. Three series of net returns were calculated for each region. Based on the VaR and the CVaR, the portfolio was optimized based on minimizing the expected loss based on...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Copula; CVaR; Risk-Management; Geographical Diversification; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46763
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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Duffield, James A.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
The hypothesis underlying this analysis is that in the presence of volatile gasoline prices competitive market forces will yield alternative, less volatile fuels as substitutes. A real-option pricing approach was employed for this analysis by modeling investment under uncertainty for the case of comparing stochastic prices of substitute commodities. Based on real options, threshold decision rules were developed for the adoption of portfolio fuels such as ethanol and conventional gasoline blends. Considering this portfolio effect, the benefit-to-cost ratios are above four for the alternative blends under varying discount rates and time horizons. This provides a strong indication that consumer demand exists for these portfolio fuels. Competitive markets will...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19182
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Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Duffield, James A.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Dramatic increases in levels and volatility of gasoline prices observed in recent years may create market incentives for adoption of alternative fuels characterized by lower price volatility. This hypothesis is investigated by applying the real-options pricing approach to develop optimal thresholds for switching from conventional gasoline to alternative fuels such as ethanol blends. The main result of the paper is that given the historical price patterns of conventional gasoline and ethanol, switching to ethanol blends is an economically sound decision provided this does not decrease efficiency of the vehicle. Analysis of data subsamples during the periods of higher volatility of gasoline prices (Gulf War and War on Terrorism) provides even stronger...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Alternative fuels; Decision making under uncertainty; Ethanol; Price volatility; Real options; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10144
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ESTIMATING RETURNS UNDER STANDARD REINSURANCE AGREEMENT AgEcon
Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The present paper describes the assumptions and modeling structure behind the SRA simulator, a user-friendly computer program developed in cooperation with RMA as a tool to assist policymakers in assessing the economic impact of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement. The simulator uses the historical data on yields, prices, and insurance losses for each district, crop, and insurance product in order to simulate a distribution of the book of business resulting from underwriting crop insurance either in aggregate or for a specific company.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19720
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Estimation and Analysis of Rational Expectations Model of International Cotton Market AgEcon
Tokovenko, Oleksiy; Gunter, Lewell F.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
The paper outlines an approach to estimation and analysis of rational expectations international cotton market. A multiple model bootstrap filter is used to compute unobserved market expectations and their distributions. Estimation results are used to analyze the welfare effects of exogenous trade shocks and government programs, with application to the national market security.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Marketing.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9760
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Farming Exit Decision by Age Group: Analysis of Tobacco Buyout Impact in Kentucky AgEcon
Pushkarskaya, Helen N.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
This article analyzes factors that affected the decision to exit tobacco production in the wake of the tobacco buyout program using the data collected through a survey of Kentucky tobacco farmers. Using the Heuristic logistic regression model, we find that the decision to exit tobacco growing was affected by efficiency considerations, availability of off-farm employment, and exit barriers. Availability of off-farm employment had the strongest effect on farmers younger than 46, while the effect of variables measuring efficiency and exit barriers seemed to be more uniform across age groups. Based on the results we suggest several policy interventions.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Age group; Industry exit; Tobacco buyout; Tobacco farming; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; C25; D21; E24; J00; J11; J24; J43; Q18; R23.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56653
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Hedging Downside Risk to Farm Income with Futures and Options: Effects of Government Payment Programs and Federal Crop Insurance Plans AgEcon
Zhang, Rui (Carolyn); Houston, Jack E.; Vedenov, Dmitry V.; Barnett, Barry J..
The high proportion of government payments in total crop farm income and the purchase of subsidized crop insurance have changed the income distribution of U.S. crop farmers. As a result, the risk management behaviors of U.S. crop farmers are affected by these programs in terms of the use of private market risk management tools, such as futures and options. The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of the government payments and federal crop insurance policies on the usage of futures and options by crop farmers from a downside risk management perspective. Results in this study suggest that both yield insurance and revenue insurance creates more hedging demands for futures. But revenue insurance decreases the buying of put options at the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9911
Registros recuperados: 38
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